September 2020 – Casual Friday Webinar

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BCGS Talk, Friday September 25, 2020

Speaker: Sergio Espinosa, Ph.D, SEGeoscience & Exploration

Title: Multivariate Statistical Risk Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Date/Time: Friday, September 25, 2020 @ 4:30pm PST

Location: Online Webinar

Abstract:

“Multivariate Statistical Risk Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic”
Sergio Espinosa, Ph.D, SEGeoscience & Exploration

The risk of a disaster can be quantified with the probability  of occurrence of the catastrophic event within a time period (UNDRR).
This study examines the risk of death from COVID-19 of a healthy person during the on-going pandemic caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.
 
In any Risk (R) assessment, e.g. earthquake-related, three elements are always  analyzed:

  • Hazard (H)
  • Exposure (E)
  • Vulnerability (V)

Those three elements relate to Risk as follows: R = H + E + V

This means, the higher the Hazard level (H), the higher the  Exposure (E), and the higher the Vulnerability (V) of a  single person or of a community, the higher will be the Risk (R) of dying from the disease.

Furthermore, the probability of falling critically ill and from eventually dying from COVID-19 depends firstly on the  probability of getting infected. So, these two different risks, of firstly getting infected (R1) and of secondly dying (R2),  is described separately, starting with a single healthy non-infected person, called the susceptible host,  who is exposed to the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Bio:

Sergio studied Applied Geophysics at the School of Mines “Bergakademie” in Freiberg, Germany completing a BSc (Hauptstudium) in 1988 and a MSc (Diplom) in 1989. 

Besides being a mineral exploration geophysicist with almost 25 years of experience working for major and junior mining companies across various commodities, deposit styles and in diverse geological settings, Sergio has also a background in Seismology (PhD 1993, Freiberg, Germany), with also some training in Volcanology (e.g. Canary Islands) and Meteorology (FU Berlin), as well as a postdoc in Earthquake Hazards (1994/1995, GFZ Potsdam, Germany).

 

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